Snapshot
Current Price & Key Stats
NKE
Nike, Inc.
$44.43
YTD−30.3%
Mkt Cap$65.8B
52wk$42–$80
Div Yield3.69%
LULU
lululemon athletica inc.
$133.57
YTD~−39%
Mkt Cap~$15.4B
52wk$134–$340
Div YieldNone
DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corp.
$102.25
YTD+2.4%
Mkt Cap~$14.5B
52wk$79–$133
Div YieldNone
UA
Under Armour, Inc. (Class C)
$6.09
YTD~−14%
Mkt Cap~$3.0B
52wk$4.13–$8.15
Div YieldNone
VFC
V.F. Corporation
$19.14
YTD~+35%
Mkt Cap~$7.4B
52wk$11–$22
Div Yield~0%
COLM
Columbia Sportswear Co.
$60.26
YTD~−10%
Mkt Cap~$3.1B
52wk$47–$72
Div Yield~2.0%
Market Structure
Peer Group Composition & 2026 Price Performance
Peer Group Market Cap
% of combined $109B peer universe
NKE60.2% · $65.8B
LULU14.1% · $15.4B
DECK13.3% · $14.5B
VFC6.8% · $7.4B
COLM2.8% · $3.1B
UA2.8% · $3.0B
2026 YTD Price Performance (Indexed to 100)
Jan 1, 2026 = 100 for each ticker · ~est. monthly
Full Comparison
Side-by-Side Metrics
| Ticker | Price | YTD % | 52wk Low | 52wk High | Mkt Cap | TTM P/E | Fwd P/E | EV/EBITDA | Rev TTM | Rev YoY | Gross Mgn | EBITDA Mgn | Net Mgn | Net Cash/(Debt) | Div Yield | Analyst Tgt | Upside | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKENike, Inc. | $44.43 | −30.3% | $42.09 | $80.17 | $65.8B | 29.2× | ~20×~est | ~18×~est | $46.3B | −9.8% | 44.6% | ~13% | ~7.0% | ~($0.5B) | 3.69% | $63.44 | +42.8% | Buy |
| LULUlululemon athletica | $133.57 | ~−39% | $133.50 | $340.25 | $15.4B | 11.5× | 12.9× | 6.8× | $11.1B | +4.9% | ~58% | 24.6% | 14.2% | ~$0.01B | — | $190.26 | +42.4% | Hold |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor | $102.25 | +2.4% | $78.91 | $133.43 | $14.5B | 15.7× | 15.3× | 10.5× | $4.99B | +16.3% | ~56% | ~22% | ~19% | +$1.74B | — | $122.45 | +19.8% | Buy |
| UAUnder Armour (Class C) | $6.09 | ~−14% | $4.13 | $8.15 | $3.0B | N/A | N/A | N/A | $5.16B | −9.4% | 47.9% | 5.9% | neg | ($0.09B) | — | ~$9.00 | ~+48% | Neutral |
| VFCV.F. Corporation | $19.14 | ~+35% | $11.06 | $22.27 | $7.4B | ~15×~est | ~14×~est | ~12×~est | ~$11.0B | ~0% | 54.5% | ~11% | ~3%~est | ($2.5B) | ~0% | $20.70 | +8.1% | Neutral |
| COLMColumbia Sportswear | $60.26 | ~−10% | $47.48 | $71.68 | $3.1B | 13.5× | 20.6× | 8.7× | $3.40B | +1.0% | 50.5% | ~9% | 5.2% | +$0.79B | ~2.0% | $61.43 | +2.4% | Hold |
Stock-Level Analysis
Individual Deep Dives
NKE
Nike, Inc. · NYSE · Consumer Discretionary — Footwear & Apparel
The world's largest athletic brand is in a painful reset. Revenue fell 9.8% in FY25 to $46.3B, weighed down by DTC missteps, inventory glut, and a wave of challenger brands (On, HOKA, Alo) taking shelf space. The "Win Now" plan cut 1,400 jobs and reversed direct-to-consumer overreach. At $44 and 11-year lows, the bull case rests on brand equity that hasn't evaporated — and a 3.7% dividend while you wait.
NKE — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Near resistance | $48.00 |
| R2 | 200-day MA ~est | $56.00 |
| R3 | Prior support (broke) | $62.00 |
| R4 | 52wk high | $80.17 |
| S1 | 52wk low / current base | $42.09 |
| S2 | 2013-era support | $38.00 |
| S3 | COVID low area | $32.00 |
| S4 | Decade support | $28.00 |
▲ Bull
$75
+68.8%
Win Now plan delivers; revenue stabilizes by FY26 Q2; new product pipeline (Air Max 2026) lands well. DTC partnerships with Foot Locker and Dick's revive wholesale. Margin recovery to 46%+ drives earnings upside.
Probability: 30%
◆ Base
$55
+23.8%
Revenue decline stops but recovery is slow. Gross margin stabilizes ~44-45%. Stock re-rates to ~20x forward earnings as turnaround credibility is established. Dividend maintained and yields support.
Probability: 50%
▼ Bear
$32
−28.0%
FQ4 guidance disappoints; challenger brands (On, HOKA, New Balance) continue taking market share in performance running. China revenue remains depressed. Management credibility gap widens.
Probability: 20%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $57.35 |
| Up/Down ratio (bull EV vs bear EV) | 2.6× |
Key Catalysts
FQ4 FY26 earnings (Jun 25, 2026) — guidance is the critical data point; any stabilization in revenue trend will be a positive re-rating trigger
New CEO announcement — Nike has been searching; an outsider appointment with credibility would likely trigger a rally
2026 World Cup positioning — Nike remains kit sponsor for top national teams; sponsorship activations can boost brand visibility vs. Adidas
China recovery trajectory — China rev was ~15% of total; any recovery in China spend would materially improve the revenue line
FY25 Revenue
$46.3B
−9.8% YoY · FY end May 2025
Gross Margin
44.6%
Under pressure from DTC mix shift reversal
Dividend
$1.64/yr
3.69% yield · Payout ratio elevated
Moat
Brand + Scale
Unmatched global athlete endorsements; NIKE is still #1 by revenue
LULU
lululemon athletica inc. · NASDAQ · Consumer Discretionary — Apparel Retail
Lululemon is at its cheapest valuation since 2017 and near its 52-week low. The stock has dropped ~60% from its $485 all-time high as North American growth stalled and competition intensified (Alo, Vuori, Fabletics). The April 2026 CEO announcement — former Nike exec Heidi O'Neill — landed mixed with investors. A proxy fight from founder Chip Wilson adds board-level noise. But at 12x earnings with $11B in revenue and a 24% EBITDA margin, this isn't a broken business — it's a broken narrative.
LULU — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Immediate resistance | $148 |
| R2 | 50-day MA ~est | $165 |
| R3 | Prior support break | $200 |
| R4 | 52wk high area | $280 |
| S1 | 52wk low (current) | $133.50 |
| S2 | 2018–19 base zone | $115 |
| S3 | 2017 breakout level | $90 |
| S4 | COVID low | $70 |
▲ Bull
$225
+68.5%
Heidi O'Neill stabilizes leadership, brings Nike-style operational credibility. Q1 FY27 (May 2026) shows North America inflection. International (China, EMEA) continues strong. Chip Wilson proxy fight resolved. Stock re-rates to 25x earnings as growth returns.
Probability: 25%
◆ Base
$170
+27.3%
New CEO is incrementally positive but not transformative. Revenue growth continues at mid-single digits. Board stability restored. Valuation expands from 12x to 16-17x as governance discount fades. International offsets NA softness.
Probability: 50%
▼ Bear
$90
−32.6%
O'Neill proves wrong hire; Chip Wilson disruption continues through proxy season. North America revenue contracts as Alo and Vuori take market share. Texas AG investigation into PFAS chemicals creates reputational damage. Margins compress.
Probability: 25%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $168 |
| Up/Down ratio | 1.8× |
Key Catalysts
Q1 FY27 earnings (May 28, 2026) — first earnings commentary from incoming CEO O'Neill; North America comp is the critical number
Chip Wilson proxy vote — annual meeting vote on his 3 director nominees; a loss by the board would accelerate management instability
Texas AG PFAS investigation — potential consumer backlash or litigation from "forever chemicals" probe could pressure brand perception
International momentum — China and EMEA have been growing double-digits; sustained strength here is the growth story if NA stays soft
FY26 Revenue (end Jan '26)
$11.1B
+4.9% YoY · Fastest grower in this peer set ex-DECK
EBITDA Margin
24.6%
Best margin profile in the peer group by far
Balance Sheet
~Net Zero
$1.81B cash / $1.80B debt · effectively neutral
Moat
Premium Brand
Customer loyalty and pricing power remain intact despite competitive pressure
DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corp. · NYSE · Consumer Discretionary — Footwear
Deckers owns HOKA (the hottest running shoe brand in the world) and UGG (a dominant lifestyle casual brand). Revenue grew 16% in FY25 to $5B — the best in this peer group. With $1.74B in net cash, no dividend pressure to manage, and a pipeline of HOKA models, this is the cleanest growth story on the list. The stock pulled back from $223 highs as HOKA growth normalization concerns mounted, but at 15x earnings it's pricing in very modest expectations for a brand still expanding globally.
DECK — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50-day MA ~est | $110 |
| R2 | 200-day MA ~est | $118 |
| R3 | Prior support (Aug '25) | $133 |
| R4 | All-time high area | $223 |
| S1 | Recent base / 52wk low area | $79 |
| S2 | FY24 earnings gap | $72 |
| S3 | 2023 breakout level | $58 |
| S4 | Pre-HOKA era base | $40 |
▲ Bull
$165
+61.4%
FY26 Q4 HOKA results show 20%+ growth reacceleration; global expansion (Europe, Asia) materially accelerates. UGG collab pipeline delivers. Market gives HOKA a proper growth multiple (30x+). Net cash deployed in buybacks or accretive acquisition.
Probability: 30%
◆ Base
$125
+22.2%
HOKA revenue grows at 10-15% as expected. UGG holds steady at low-single-digit growth. FY26 revenue ~$5.3B. Stock re-rates modestly to 18-19x earnings. Net cash position continues to grow as FCF remains strong.
Probability: 50%
▼ Bear
$72
−29.6%
HOKA growth stalls below 5% as On and Brooks eat share in performance running. UGG faces fashion cycle risk (already happened once in 2016). Tariff headwinds compress margins meaningfully. Growth multiple completely unwound.
Probability: 20%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $126.90 |
| Up/Down ratio | 2.8× |
Key Catalysts
Q4 FY26 earnings (May 21, 2026) — full-year FY26 revenue and FY27 initial guidance are the market-moving numbers; HOKA unit growth is the metric to watch
HOKA Cielo X1 3.0 launch — DECK's lightest super shoe signals continued innovation pipeline; reception at Boston/London Marathon Spring 2026 is a leading indicator
UGG men's strategy — new Spring 2026 clog collection and Central Cee / Su Yiming campaigns signal a push to extend UGG beyond women's casual
Capital allocation update — with $2.09B cash and $343M debt (net cash $1.74B), investors watching for buyback acceleration or M&A to deploy the fortress balance sheet
FY25 Revenue
$4.99B
+16.3% YoY · Best revenue growth in peer group
Net Cash Position
+$1.74B
$2.09B cash vs $343M debt · Cleanest balance sheet in group ex-COLM
Gross Margin
~56%
Premium brand pricing power sustaining margins despite tariff headwinds
Moat
Product Innovation
HOKA's carbon-plated tech and UGG's fashion cycle resilience post-2016 recovery
UA
Under Armour, Inc. Class C · NYSE · Consumer Discretionary — Apparel
Under Armour trades at $6 — 89% below its 2015 peak — and is the definition of a turnaround-or-zero situation. Revenue fell 9.4% in FY25 to $5.16B, and FY26 guidance calls for a further 4-5% decline. Kevin Plank returned as CEO and has been buying stock personally (~$6.9M in insider purchases). The restructuring plan is real but the trajectory is still down. EBITDA margin at 5.9% leaves minimal room for error. Only for investors with a 2-3 year horizon and high risk tolerance.
UA — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Key resistance | $7.00 |
| R2 | 50-day MA ~est | $7.50 |
| R3 | 52wk high | $8.15 |
| R4 | FY25 high | $10.50 |
| S1 | Current base | $5.50 |
| S2 | 52wk low | $4.13 |
| S3 | Post-IPO era support | $3.00 |
| S4 | Distressed zone | $2.00 |
▲ Bull
$14
+129.9%
Plank's restructuring exceeds expectations; FY27 revenue stabilizes. Footwear segment (down 16% in Q3 FY26) recovers with new product launches. Stephen Curry re-signs after reported breakup. Gross margin returns to 49%+. Private equity interest at current valuation leads to takeout premium.
Probability: 20%
◆ Base
$8
+31.4%
Revenue declines slow to -2% to -3% in FY26; FY27 shows stabilization. EBITDA margin expands to 8-9% via cost cuts. North America still challenged; EMEA growth (+12% Q3 FY26) continues to be the bright spot. Stock trades back to 52wk high area.
Probability: 50%
▼ Bear
$3
−50.7%
Revenue continues declining 5%+ through FY27. Tariff headwinds push gross margin below 44%. Liquidity concerns emerge as senior notes refinanced at higher rates eat into thin EBITDA. Brand relevance continues fading in key demographics.
Probability: 30%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $7.10 |
| Up/Down ratio | 1.5× |
Key Catalysts
Q4 FY26 earnings (May 12, 2026) — full FY26 results and FY27 guidance are critical; any positive inflection in North America revenue will be the stock-moving catalyst
Kevin Plank insider buy signal — $6.9M in personal purchases signals conviction; continued buying at current prices would attract value-oriented investors
Stephen Curry partnership resolution — Curry's reported breakup with UA is a brand story for Q1 FY27; a new deal or replacement ambassador announcement matters
U.S. tariff trajectory — FY26 gross margin hit 250bps from tariffs; any relief or product sourcing diversification success would be disproportionately positive at thin current margins
FY25 Revenue
$5.16B
−9.4% YoY · FY26 guidance −4-5%
Gross Margin
47.9%
Down 250bps in Q2 FY26 from tariff headwinds
Balance Sheet
Net Debt
$501M cash / $595M LT debt · 7.25% Senior Notes 2030
Wild Card
Plank Factor
Founder-led turnarounds have high variance; Plank built this once from $0
VFC
V.F. Corporation · NYSE · Consumer Discretionary — Apparel, Footwear & Accessories
VF Corp is the most improved story in this peer group YTD (+35%). Bracken Darrell's restructuring is working: The North Face +5%, Timberland +5%, Altra +35%, net debt reduced by $600M (20%). The anchor around their neck is Vans, down 10-15% and showing no signs of a cultural turnaround — but the rest of the portfolio is growing. At $19 with a target of $20.70, the consensus says "you bought the recovery already." The real question is whether Vans can return to growth by FY28.
VFC — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 52wk high | $22.27 |
| R2 | 2024 resistance area | $28.00 |
| R3 | 200-day MA (long-term) | $18.50 |
| R4 | Prior peak 2022 | $50.00 |
| S1 | Prior resistance now support | $17.50 |
| S2 | 50-day MA ~est | $16.00 |
| S3 | 52wk low | $11.06 |
| S4 | Multi-year low | $8.00 |
▲ Bull
$32
+67.2%
Vans stabilizes by FY27 Q2; The North Face accelerates to 10%+ growth driven by outdoor lifestyle trend. Darrell achieves 2.5x leverage target ahead of FY28 plan. Dividend potentially reinstated. Dickies sale proceeds deployed for further debt reduction.
Probability: 25%
◆ Base
$22
+14.9%
Transformation on track but slow. The North Face and Timberland grow 5% each; Vans continues to drag at -5% to -8%. Leverage reaches 3.5x by FY26 end as guided. Stock stays range-bound near current analyst target.
Probability: 50%
▼ Bear
$11
−42.5%
Vans accelerates its decline; tariff headwinds hit sourcing costs hard. Leverage target of 3.5x slips as cash generation disappoints. The North Face faces competition from Arc'teryx and Patagonia. Rating agencies re-evaluate credit.
Probability: 25%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $21.75 |
| Up/Down ratio | 1.9× |
Key Catalysts
Q4 FY26 earnings (~May 2026) — full-year FY26 results and FY27 guidance; leverage ratio trajectory is the key financial metric for bond and equity holders alike
Vans relaunch strategy — any announced cultural/product reset (new creative director, athlete partnership, collab) would be the first positive signal for the brand in 3 years
Dickies sale completion — reported sale to rationalize portfolio; sale proceeds and what they do with the capital will signal capital allocation priorities
Altra brand momentum — +35% YoY is an underappreciated growth driver; analyst coverage on Altra segment specifically could drive upward revisions
Revenue FY26 (~est)
~$11.0B
Flat to +1% YoY per guidance · FY end March 2026
Gross Margin
54.5%
Q3 FY26 adj; targeting 55% by FY28
Net Debt
~$2.5B
Down ~$600M YoY; targeting 3.5× leverage by FY26 end
Moat
Portfolio Brands
North Face + Timberland have genuine outdoor moats; Vans has cultural legacy but is in repair mode
COLM
Columbia Sportswear Co. · NASDAQ · Consumer Discretionary — Outdoor Apparel
Columbia is the safest name in this group and arguably the least exciting. $791M in cash, zero debt, a 2% dividend — but revenue grew only 1% in 2025 and operating margin is 6.1%. The prAna and Mountain Hardwear impairment charges ($29M in 2025) signal brand rationalization happening behind the scenes. The stock trades at 13.5x trailing earnings with minimal growth expectations baked in. It's not a buy for return-seekers but it's defensible. Conservative investors get a margin of safety; growth investors don't get much to work with.
COLM — 2026 Price Path (approx.)
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50-day MA ~est | $63 |
| R2 | 200-day MA ~est | $67 |
| R3 | 52wk high | $71.68 |
| R4 | 2023 all-time high area | $85 |
| S1 | Current support | $57 |
| S2 | 52wk low area | $47.48 |
| S3 | 2020 COVID recovery level | $40 |
| S4 | COVID low | $28 |
▲ Bull
$85
+41.1%
Boyle family decides to deploy the $791M cash balance via meaningful buyback (currently doing minimal repurchases). Revenue growth accelerates to 5%+ as international gains offset US softness. prAna/Mountain Hardwear impairment clears the way for margin expansion to 8%+.
Probability: 20%
◆ Base
$65
+7.9%
Revenue grows 1-3% per FY26 guidance ($3.43-$3.5B). EPS $3.20-$3.65 per guidance. Operating margin 6.2-6.9%. Dividend maintained. Stock trades at 17-19x forward earnings — essentially flat to where it is now with dividend income making up the return.
Probability: 55%
▼ Bear
$44
−27.0%
US market softness deepens with no catalyst to recover. $35-40M incremental tariff headwinds (pre-mitigation) compress margins to below guidance. prAna brand needs further impairment. EPS falls below $2.50 and forward P/E compresses.
Probability: 25%
| Expected Value (probability-weighted) | $63.75 |
| Up/Down ratio | 1.5× |
Key Catalysts
Profit improvement program execution — Columbia announced a cost structure review; results of this program will determine whether operating margin guidance of 6.2-6.9% can be exceeded in FY26
Capital allocation decision — $791M cash on a $3.1B market cap company (25% of market cap in cash) is underutilized; any step-up in buybacks would be immediately accretive
prAna and Mountain Hardwear strategic review — $29M in impairment suggests potential brand exits; divesting either would simplify the portfolio and unlock capital
U.S. wholesale recovery — Q4 2025 showed -2% net sales with US underlying weakness; any positive comp in the US channel in H1 2026 would re-rate the stock
FY25 Revenue
$3.40B
+1.0% YoY · FY26 guidance: +1-3%
Cash / Debt
$791M / $0
Zero borrowings · 25% of market cap in cash
Dividend
$1.20/yr
$0.30/quarter · ~2% yield · consistent payer
Moat
Balance Sheet
Fortress financial position protects downside; brand moat is narrow vs. North Face / Nike
Data Sources & Methodology
Report Date: May 3, 2026. All prices reflect available data as of market close May 1–3, 2026 sourced from Yahoo Finance, Robinhood, Investing.com, and MacroTrends. Current prices: NKE $44.43 (confirmed), LULU $133.57 (confirmed), DECK $102.25 (confirmed Apr 30), UA $6.09 (confirmed May 1), VFC $19.14 (confirmed May 1), COLM $60.26 (confirmed).
YTD performance: NKE −30.32% confirmed via FinanceCharts; DECK +2.42% confirmed via FinanceCharts; LULU, UA, VFC, COLM marked ~est. — calculated from approximate Jan 1, 2026 prices vs. current; treat as indicative.
Financial data: Revenue, gross margin, and balance sheet figures sourced from SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q), company press releases, and FinanceCharts/Stockanalysis aggregators. NKE FY25 revenue, LULU FY26 revenue, DECK FY25 revenue, UA FY25 revenue, COLM FY25 revenue all confirmed from company filings. VFC revenue marked ~est. based on Q1-Q3 FY26 actuals plus Q4 guidance.
Valuation multiples: NKE TTM P/E 29.2× confirmed (Yahoo Finance); LULU fwd P/E 12.9× confirmed (Stockanalysis); DECK TTM P/E 15.7× confirmed (Stockanalysis); VFC and UA forward P/E marked ~est. due to ongoing restructuring charges making trailing multiples less meaningful.
Analyst consensus: NKE avg target $63.44 (26 analysts); LULU avg target $190.26 (25 analysts); DECK avg target $122.45 (23 analysts); COLM avg target $61.43 (consensus); UA ~$9 (est.); VFC $20.70 (confirmed Investing.com). All upside/downside calculated from current price.
Scenarios & probabilities: Illustrative only. Not investment advice. Bull/Base/Bear scenarios are derived from analyst consensus ranges, company guidance, sector dynamics, and Laverton's analytical judgment. Probabilities are subjective estimates and do not constitute a guarantee of outcome.
SKX note: Skechers U.S.A. was requested but excluded — delisted NYSE September 12, 2025 following completion of 3G Capital acquisition at $63.00/share (deal value $9.42B).
Price paths: All individual stock price charts use approximate monthly data points. They are not derived from a continuous daily data feed and should be treated as illustrative of general price trajectory rather than precise historical data.
Laverton Advisory LLC is not a registered investment advisor. This report is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.