Market Observations

Hyperscalers are committing $700B in 2026 and over $1T in 2027. Three scenarios for how this plays out — and why the sustaining capex embedded in the buildout makes the bear case worse than the market is pricing.

Four historical analogues — 1990 Gulf War, 1998 Russia/LTCM, 2018 Trade War, 2011 Debt Ceiling — mapped against the 2026 drawdown with 12-week forward projection paths and scenario cards.