First check-in on 29 prior calls across 5 sectors — measuring how the bull/base/bear targets have aged after four weeks.
First lookback across 29 positions from 5 prior peer analyses, 2-3 weeks after the original research. AI semiconductors and energy refining are the standout sectors — Micron is up 50%, blowing past its bull target. Utilities and consumer apparel are the laggards, with nine positions tracking toward bear zone.
Full thesis
At 2-3 weeks, AI semiconductors (particularly memory) and energy refining are the strongest-performing sectors, validating the AI infrastructure thesis. Micron at +50% has already exceeded its bull case target. The four downstream refiners are all higher on improving crack spreads. The weaker performers are utilities and power generators (merchant power price volatility) and consumer discretionary apparel (tariff pressure and softening consumer). This is a first baseline — meaningful pattern recognition will emerge over 3-6 months.
Peer Analysis Lookback
May 2026
Snapshot
As of May 16, 2026Over a 2–3 week window, AI semiconductors and energy refining are the standout sectors. Memory in particular has been explosive — Micron surged 50% from its April 27 research price of $482 to $724, blowing past its $600 bull case target. Intel and AMD both crossed into bull territory, validating the agentic AI CPU thesis. The four downstream refiners (DINO, MPC, PSX, VLO) are all higher, benefiting from improving crack spreads and summer driving season setup.
On the other side, utilities and consumer apparel are broadly underperforming. Three merchant power generators — Vistra, Constellation Energy, and NRG — fell 15–20% in just weeks, reflecting power price volatility and earnings execution concerns. Consumer discretionary apparel is the weakest sector by breadth, with nine of the names tracking toward bear zone under tariff pressure and softening North American consumer sentiment.
Industrial automation is the most stable, with all five names sitting in base zone. It is the only sector where every position is tracking in-line with its research thesis — no outliers in either direction.
⚠ These observations reflect a very short holding window. Sector rotations of this magnitude over 2–3 weeks are often noise, not signal. The value of this analysis compounds as the series matures.
All positions
29 tickers · research Apr 27–May 3, 2026Sector context
Glossary of Abbreviations
| YTD | Year to Date — return since January 1 of the current year |
| EV/EBITDA | Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA — the most common cross-capital-structure valuation multiple |
| EBITDA | Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization — a proxy for operating cash profitability |
| FCF | Free Cash Flow — operating cash flow minus capital expenditures; what the business actually generates for shareholders |
| TTM | Trailing Twelve Months — the most recent four reported quarters of financial data |
| bull zone | Price at or above the bull-case target from the original analysis — thesis is playing out ahead of schedule |
| base zone | Price tracking between the bear and bull targets — thesis on track with normal variance |
| bear zone | Price at or below the bear-case target — downside scenario is materializing or thesis has been challenged |
| ATH | All-Time High — the highest price a stock has ever traded |