Every major public homebuilder bottomed within the same week in May 2026 as mortgage rates snapped back above 6.5% — the June rally has separated the names with real margin and balance-sheet advantages (PulteGroup, NVR, Toll Brothers) from the ones still working through it (Lennar's land-light transition, KB Home's leverage).
All six major public homebuilders hit 52-week lows within days of each other in mid-May 2026 as the 30-year mortgage rate snapped back to 6.5% after briefly dipping near 6%. The June bounce has been uneven: Toll Brothers and D.R. Horton beat Q2 estimates and rallied hardest, while PulteGroup and NVR missed and KB Home is heading into earnings next week off the worst fundamentals in the group. PulteGroup and NVR screen cleanest on margin and balance-sheet quality; KB Home is the deepest-value, highest-risk name, trading below book value.
Full thesis
Homebuilders spent 2026 round-tripping with the 30-year mortgage rate — a fall from 6.85% to near 6% fueled a run into February, and a snapback to 6.5% by May drove every name in this group to a fresh 52-week low within the same week. The June recovery has been driven less by rates, which haven't really moved, and more by who actually beat Q2 numbers: Toll Brothers' luxury, less rate-sensitive buyer base and D.R. Horton's scale both delivered real beats, while PulteGroup and NVR posted steep earnings declines on softer volume. PulteGroup carries the best margins and lowest leverage in the group; NVR's land-option model produces the highest returns on capital by a wide margin but also the smallest revenue base and the steepest earnings decline. KB Home is the value/risk outlier — cheapest on every multiple, most leveraged, and the only name trading below book value, heading into earnings on June 23.
US Homebuilders
A peer comparison of the six largest US public homebuilders — D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Lennar, NVR, Toll Brothers, and KB Home — after a sector-wide capitulation low in May 2026 and an uneven June recovery.
Six Builders, One Bottom
Every name in this group hit a 52-week low within the same eight trading days — May 13 through May 20, 2026 — as the 30-year mortgage rate snapped back to 6.5% after briefly dipping near 6% in late February. Since then the recovery has been uneven: Toll Brothers and D.R. Horton both beat Q2 estimates and have rallied hardest off the bottom, while PulteGroup and NVR posted steep earnings declines and are still working through it. KB Home, the smallest and most leveraged name in the group, reports its own quarter next week.
The Mortgage-Rate Round Trip
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.85% in early June 2025 to a 13-month low of 5.98% on February 26, 2026 — a real tailwind that drove every builder in this group toward a cycle high in late 2025 and again in February 2026. From there, rates snapped back more than 50 basis points to 6.53% by May 28, and every single name hit a fresh 52-week low between May 13 and May 20. Rates haven't really moved since — 6.52% as of June 11 — so the June rally has been driven by who actually beat their numbers, not by a change in financing costs.
New home sales ran at a 622,000 seasonally-adjusted annual rate in April 2026 (Census/FRED), modest by historical standards and consistent with an affordability-constrained spring selling season. Builders have been leaning on rate buydowns and price incentives to move inventory at that rate level rather than cutting list prices outright — a margin headwind that shows up differently across this group depending on balance-sheet flexibility.
Market Cap Breakdown
D.R. Horton is more than a third of the group on its own — its entry-level focus and sheer build volume have made it the largest public homebuilder by a wide margin. PulteGroup and Lennar are roughly tied for second; KB Home, the smallest name here, is less than a tenth the size of DHI.
Full Comparison
| Company | Price | Mkt Cap | YTD | TTM P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn | ROE | Net Debt/EBITDA | Div Yield | Consensus PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton | $156.33 | $44.3B | +8.5% | 14.2x | 1.91x | 11.6x | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 1.10x | 1.12% | $163.86 |
| PHMPulteGroup | $124.76 | $23.8B | +6.4% | 11.7x | 1.85x | 8.7x | 26.1% | 12.1% | 15.9% | 0.21x | 0.80% | $144.50 |
| LENLennar | $89.78 | $22.3B | -12.7% | 13.5x | 1.01x | 11.4x | 8.0% ~est. | 4.9% | 7.4% | 1.87x | 2.23% | $89.57 |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $6,437.58 | $17.4B | -11.7% | 14.5x | 5.12x | 10.1x | 22.8% | 12.8% | 32.7% | -0.41x | 0.0% | $7,465 |
| TOLToll Brothers | $153.27 | $14.3B | +13.4% | 11.3x | 1.72x | 9.0x | 24.9% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 1.01x | 0.66% | $173.88 |
| KBHKB Home | $53.84 | $3.4B | -4.6% | 9.6x | 0.88x | 10.3x | 17.8% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 3.49x | 1.86% | $60.43 |
All figures TTM as of the most recent reported quarter, priced as of June 16, 2026 close. LEN's gross margin reflects its post-Millrose land-light transition (land sale and financial-services revenue blended in) and is not directly comparable to historical homebuilding-only margins. NVR pays no dividend and returns capital exclusively via buybacks. See footnote for sources.
D.R. Horton is the largest public homebuilder in the US by volume, built primarily around entry-level and first-time-buyer product across the Sun Belt. That scale gives it pricing and cost advantages smaller builders can't match, and it showed up in the most recent quarter: fiscal Q2 revenue of $7.558B beat estimates and grew 9.7% year over year, with EPS of $2.24 beating the $2.15 estimate. It's the steadiest name in this group — not the cheapest, not the priciest, but the one with the least company-specific risk.
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Sep 8 '25) | $184.04 |
| R2 | Oct '25 secondary high | $174.95 |
| R1 | Post-earnings high (Apr 23 '26) | $164.22 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16) | $156.33 |
| S1 | Mar '26 low | $137.22 |
| S2 | Jul '25 consolidation base | $129.82 |
| S3 | 52-week low (Jun 17 '25) | $119.92 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Jul 21, 2026 earnings Fiscal Q3 report, consensus EPS $2.98. Market will watch whether the Q2 beat (revenue +9.7% YoY) extends into the back half.
- Mortgage rate path DHI's entry-level buyer base is the most rate-sensitive in the group — every move in the 30-year is a bigger swing factor here than for TOL's luxury buyers.
- Incentive intensity Watch gross margin trend — incentive spend has been the offset to softer pricing across the whole entry-level segment.
Fundamental Snapshot
- Revenue TTM ~$32.9B
- FQ2'26 Revenue $7.558B (+9.7% YoY, beat)
- FQ2'26 EPS $2.24 (beat $2.15 est, +10.8% YoY)
- Gross / Net Margin 22.8% / 9.5%
- Net Debt/EBITDA 1.10x
- Dividend Yield 1.12% ($1.75/sh)
How I'm thinking about it: DHI is the scale anchor of this group, not the highest-conviction trade in either direction. At $156, it's trading roughly in line with its own history and below consensus — comfortable to hold through the rate cycle given the balance sheet and cost advantages, but I'm not chasing it above $165 where the analyst target already sits. Below $137 is where the risk/reward starts to look genuinely interesting again.
PulteGroup carries the best gross margin (26.1%), best net margin (12.1%), and lowest leverage (0.21x net debt/EBITDA) of any builder in this group — a genuinely differentiated cost structure built on a more move-up/active-adult-skewed buyer mix than DHI or KBH. The tension: fiscal Q1 revenue fell 26.1% year over year and EPS missed slightly, a steeper volume decline than peers posted in the same window, even as the margin profile held up.
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Feb 13 '26) | $142.56 |
| R2 | Oct '25 high | $137.61 |
| R1 | Post-earnings high (Apr 23 '26) | $130.64 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16) | $124.76 |
| S1 | May '26 capitulation low area | $110.11 |
| S2 | 52-week low (Jun 17 '25) | $98.72 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Jul 22, 2026 earnings Q2 report, consensus EPS $2.39. Following a Q1 miss, this print is the read on whether the revenue decline is stabilizing.
- Margin durability The whole bull case rests on whether 26%+ gross margin holds as volume stays soft — watch incentive spend closely.
- Capital return Lowest leverage in the group (0.21x net debt/EBITDA) gives PHM the most flexibility to lean into buybacks if the stock stays cheap.
Fundamental Snapshot
- FQ1'26 Revenue $3.41B (-26.1% YoY, beat est.)
- FQ1'26 EPS $1.79 (miss $1.80 est, -29.8% YoY)
- Gross / Net Margin 26.1% / 12.1% (best in group)
- Net Debt/EBITDA 0.21x (lowest in group)
- ROE 15.9%
- Dividend Yield 0.80% ($1.00/sh)
How I'm thinking about it: PHM has the cleanest balance sheet and the best margin structure in this group, and it's priced like a mid-pack name at 11.7x trailing earnings. The Q1 volume decline is the thing to watch — if it's a one-quarter air pocket rather than a trend, $125 is a reasonable level to be building a position. I'd want to see the July print confirm stabilization before getting more aggressive above $130.
Lennar spun off Millrose Properties, a land-banking REIT, in February 2025 as part of a structural shift toward a "land-light" model — selling land to Millrose and optioning it back rather than carrying it on the balance sheet. That transition is the reason LEN's reported gross margin (around 8% TTM) looks nothing like its historical homebuilding-only margin in the high teens: the consolidated figure now blends in lower-margin land transactions and financial-services revenue. The most recent quarter was noisy as a result — revenue grew 19.9% year over year but missed the estimate, while EPS of $1.24 came in exactly in line.
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Sep 8 '25) | $142.40 |
| R2 | Dec '25 local high | $133.13 |
| R1 | Feb '26 high | $114.36 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16) | $89.78 |
| S1 | Mar '26 close | $86.84 |
| S2 | 52-week low (May 15 '26) | $82.30 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Sep 17, 2026 earnings Next quarter, consensus EPS $1.37. Each print remains a test of whether the land-light transition is producing cleaner comps yet.
- Millrose transition progress The structural story here — watch operating cash flow and net debt trend as the land-option pipeline matures.
- Analyst sentiment Most bearish-skewed coverage in the group (11 sell / 2 strong sell vs. 1 strong buy) — a sentiment reset would be a real catalyst if results stabilize.
Fundamental Snapshot
- FQ2'26 Revenue $7.94B (+19.9% YoY, missed est.)
- FQ2'26 EPS $1.24 (in line, +30.9% YoY)
- Net Margin 4.9% (depressed by transition accounting)
- Net Debt/EBITDA 1.87x (highest among large-caps)
- ROE 7.4% (lowest in group, pre-transition benefit)
- Dividend Yield 2.23% ($2.00/sh, highest dividend in group)
How I'm thinking about it: LEN is the hardest name in this group to value cleanly right now because the Millrose spin-off has scrambled the historical comps — the margin and cash-flow numbers look worse than the underlying business probably is. That's exactly why the stock is the cheapest large-cap on P/B (1.01x) and trades essentially at consensus. I'd want at least one more clean quarter before sizing up, but the worst of the transition-related distortion may already be priced in below $90.
NVR never splits its stock — at $6,437 a share it's the most expensive ticker in the group in absolute dollar terms, but the business underneath is the highest-quality homebuilder there is. Its land-option model means NVR rarely owns finished lots outright; it options land from developers and only takes title right before building, which keeps land risk off the balance sheet and produces an ROE of 32.7% — more than double anyone else in this group. The cost: smallest revenue base, no dividend, and the steepest earnings decline of the cycle (-44.5% YoY EPS in the most recent quarter).
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Sep 8 '25) | $8,543 |
| R2 | Oct '25 high | $8,178 |
| R1 | Jan '26 high | $7,636 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16) | $6,438 |
| S1 | Late-May '26 bounce low | $6,105 |
| S2 | 52-week low (May 15 '26) | $5,564 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Jul 22, 2026 earnings Q2 report, consensus EPS $91.41. Following a steep Q1 miss, this is the read on whether the decline is bottoming.
- Land-option model NVR's structural differentiator — no land risk on the balance sheet means no land impairments even in a downturn, unlike land-heavy peers.
- Buybacks No dividend, net cash position (-0.41x net debt/EBITDA) — all capital return runs through repurchases, which become more accretive the cheaper the stock gets.
Fundamental Snapshot
- FQ1'26 Revenue $1.881B (-30.7% YoY, missed est.)
- FQ1'26 EPS $71.33 (-44.5% YoY)
- ROE 32.7% (highest in group, by far)
- Net Debt/EBITDA -0.41x (net cash)
- P/B 5.12x (priciest in group on book value)
- Dividend None — capital return via buybacks only
How I'm thinking about it: NVR is the quality compounder of this group — the land-option model is the single best structural idea in public homebuilding, and the 32.7% ROE is the proof. The price tag (both per-share and on P/B) reflects that, which is why the stock fell as hard as anyone else when Q1 missed. I'm comfortable holding through the earnings decline given the balance sheet; I'd treat anything back near the $5,600 low as a better entry than chasing the current bounce.
Toll Brothers builds for the luxury and move-up buyer — a demographic with more cash, higher household incomes, and meaningfully less sensitivity to the mortgage rate than DHI's or KBH's entry-level buyers. That insulation shows up clearly in the numbers: TOL posted the best Q2 of any builder in this group, with revenue up 18.0% year over year and EPS of $2.72 beating estimates by 14 cents. Today's session alone is up over 3% and has pushed the stock back above its April resistance level for the first time since the May selloff.
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Feb 13 '26) | $166.12 |
| R2 | Feb '26 secondary high | $157.24 |
| R1 | Apr '26 high — broken today | $149.25 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16, post-breakout) | $153.27 |
| S1 | Pre-breakout consolidation | $138.54 |
| S2 | 52-week low (May 19 '26) | $124.14 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Aug 18, 2026 earnings Q3 report, consensus EPS $2.89. Market will look for confirmation that the Q2 acceleration wasn't a one-off.
- Buyer-mix insulation The core differentiator versus the rest of this group — watch whether the luxury/move-up resilience holds if rates move again.
- Technical breakout Today's move above the April high is the first sign the stock has decisively cleared the May selloff range.
Fundamental Snapshot
- FQ2'26 Revenue $2.531B (+18.0% YoY, beat est.)
- FQ2'26 EPS $2.72 (beat $2.58 est, +24.5% YoY)
- Gross / Net Margin 24.9% / 11.7%
- Net Debt/EBITDA 1.01x
- Analyst Sentiment Most bullish-skewed in group; low end of target range ($156) sits above today's price
- Dividend Yield 0.66% ($1.01/sh)
How I'm thinking about it: TOL has been the best-performing name in this group both fundamentally and on the chart, and today's breakout above the April high is real confirmation, not just a bounce. Every analyst price target in the range now sits above the current price — that's a genuinely rare signal. I wouldn't chase the move aggressively after a 3%+ day, but pullbacks toward $140 are where I'd look to add.
KB Home is the smallest, cheapest, and most leveraged name in this group — and the only one trading below book value. The most recent quarter showed why the stock is priced where it is: revenue fell 36.4% year over year and EPS dropped 66.7%, the steepest declines of any builder here. Net debt/EBITDA of 3.49x is more than triple the next-most-leveraged name (LEN at 1.87x), which leaves less room for error if the spring selling season doesn't stabilize. KBH reports its next quarter on June 23 — six days from this report.
| Level | Description | Price |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52-week high (Sep 5 '25) | $67.97 |
| R2 | Oct '25 high | $65.76 |
| R1 | Jan '26 high | $58.51 |
| — | Current price (Jun 16) | $53.84 |
| S1 | Late-May '26 close | $48.86 |
| S2 | 52-week low (May 19 '26) | $45.04 |
Scenarios — 12-Month Forward View
Near-Term Catalysts & Fundamentals
Upcoming Events
- Jun 23, 2026 earnings The most immediate catalyst in this entire report — consensus EPS $0.44. After a -67% YoY EPS quarter, the market needs to see stabilization.
- Leverage trend The single biggest risk factor in the group — watch net debt/EBITDA closely given it's already more than triple LEN's.
- Book value discount The only builder here trading below book (0.88x P/B) — a value signal only if the earnings decline actually bottoms.
Fundamental Snapshot
- FQ1'26 Revenue $1.077B (-36.4% YoY)
- FQ1'26 EPS $0.52 (in line, -66.7% YoY)
- Gross / Net Margin 17.8% / 6.0% (lowest in group)
- Net Debt/EBITDA 3.49x (highest in group, by far)
- P/B 0.88x (only name below book value)
- Dividend Yield 1.86% ($1.00/sh, highest yield in group)
How I'm thinking about it: KBH is the highest-risk, highest-optionality name in this group. The cheap multiple and below-book valuation are real, but they exist for a reason — the leverage and the magnitude of the Q1 earnings reset are not small concerns. I wouldn't be adding ahead of the June 23 print; this is a name to watch the actual number on before deciding whether the value case or the value-trap case is right.
Where the Value Is
Every name in this group hit a 52-week low in the same eight-day window in May 2026 — the sector moved as one on the mortgage-rate snapback. The recovery since has not been uniform, and that divergence is the actual story here.
PulteGroup screens cleanest on quality. Best margins, lowest leverage, and a bullish-skewed analyst base, all at a below-average multiple — the volume decline is the thing to watch, not the balance sheet. NVR is the structural-quality compounder — a 32.7% ROE that no other builder here comes close to — but it's also the most expensive on book value and posted the steepest earnings decline of the cycle. Toll Brothers is the momentum leader, with a luxury buyer base that's proven measurably more resilient and a Q2 beat that just pushed the stock through technical resistance.
Lennar is the hardest to read because the Millrose land-light transition has distorted the comps — the cheap P/B (1.01x) may be a real opportunity or may just reflect genuine uncertainty about the new model. KB Home is the deep-value, deep-risk name — cheapest on every multiple and the only one below book value, but also the most leveraged by a wide margin with the steepest earnings decline. It reports next week, and that print will tell you more than anything in this report. D.R. Horton is the scale anchor for the whole group — not the cheapest or the most exciting, but the lowest-company-specific-risk way to own the sector.
| Name | View | Current | Bull | Base | Bear | PW Value | Up / Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI — D.R. Horton | HOLD | $156.33 | $190 | $164 | $130 | $163.50 | 1.3 : 1 |
| PHM — PulteGroup | BUY <$125 | $124.76 | $158 | $140 | $112 | $140.50 | 2.6 : 1 |
| LEN — Lennar | HOLD | $89.78 | $115 | $90 | $70 | $92.25 | 1.3 : 1 |
| NVR — NVR, Inc. | HOLD / BUY <$5,800 | $6,437.58 | $7,900 | $7,100 | $5,900 | $7,170 | 2.7 : 1 |
| TOL — Toll Brothers | BUY | $153.27 | $185 | $170 | $140 | $170.50 | 2.4 : 1 |
| KBH — KB Home | WATCH — earnings Jun 23 | $53.84 | $68 | $58 | $44 | $58.30 | 1.4 : 1 |
PW Value = probability-weighted average of bull, base, and bear targets using the probabilities shown in each stock section. Up/Down = (bull − current) / (current − bear). These are illustrative analytical exercises only — not investment recommendations.
Glossary of Abbreviations
| YTD | Year to Date — return since January 1 of the current year |
| TTM | Trailing Twelve Months — the most recent four reported quarters combined |
| P/E | Price-to-Earnings — share price divided by earnings per share |
| P/B | Price-to-Book — share price divided by book value (shareholders' equity) per share |
| EV/EBITDA | Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA — a cross-capital-structure valuation multiple |
| ROE | Return on Equity — net income divided by shareholders' equity; the key profitability metric for asset-light builders like NVR |
| EPS | Earnings Per Share — net income divided by diluted shares outstanding |
| Div Yld | Dividend Yield — annual dividend per share divided by current share price |
| PW Value | Probability-Weighted Value — the average of bull/base/bear price targets weighted by their assigned probabilities |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | Total debt minus cash, divided by EBITDA — a leverage measure; negative means net cash |
| Land-light | A model (NVR, increasingly LEN) where a builder options land rather than owning it outright, reducing balance-sheet risk |
| Incentives | Rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and other concessions builders use to move inventory without cutting list prices |
| 30Y FRM | 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage — the benchmark US mortgage rate, tracked weekly by Freddie Mac/FRED |
| SAAR | Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — the standard way new home sales data is reported |
| Entry-level | The first-time-buyer price segment — DHI and KBH's core demographic, most rate-sensitive in the group |
| Move-up / luxury | Higher-income, often cash-heavier buyer segments — TOL's core demographic, least rate-sensitive in the group |
Data Sources & Disclosures
Report Date: June 17, 2026 · Hammockistan · Peer Analysis · US Homebuilders
Price data: Closing prices, 52-week ranges, and historical daily series for DHI, PHM, LEN, NVR, TOL, and KBH sourced from live market data feeds as of June 16, 2026 close (current-day intraday price for DHI/TOL/KBH/PHM reflects June 17 levels at time of writing). YTD calculated from each ticker's December 31, 2025 close.
Financial data: TTM valuation ratios, margins, leverage, and ROE figures sourced from financial-statement data as of the most recent reported quarter for each company. Quarterly revenue/EPS actuals and estimates, and analyst price-target consensus and rating counts, sourced from earnings-calendar and analyst-estimate data feeds, current as of June 17, 2026. LEN's TTM gross margin reflects post-Millrose-spinoff consolidated reporting and is not directly comparable to pre-2025 homebuilding-only margins.
Macro data: 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED (series MORTGAGE30US), weekly data through June 11, 2026. New home sales from US Census Bureau via FRED (series HSN1F), April 2026 reading.
Scenario probabilities and price targets are illustrative analytical exercises only. They represent a structured framework for thinking about risk/reward, not forecasts. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.